Linking Employment, Demographic, and Land-Use Patterns
An Econometric Approach
Abigail York

Land-use and -cover change is a topic of increasing concern, as interest in forest and agricultural land preservation grows. Urban and residential land use is quickly replacing extractive land use in southern Indiana. In Southern Indiana, there is wide variation in the percentage of private forest ownership, forest regrowth, and deforestation (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Trends in Private Forest Cover in Southern Indiana, 1967-1998

Figure 1. Trends in Private Forest Cover in Southern Indiana, 1967-1998 from Munroe, DK and AM York. 2003. "Jobs, Houses and Trees: Changing Regional Structure, Local Land-Use Patterns and Forest Cover in Southern Indiana." Growth & Change. In press.

The interaction between land quality and urban growth pressures is also causing secondary forest growth and forest clearing to occur jointly in a complex spatial pattern. We argue that similar processes fuel the abandonment of agricultural land leading to private forest regrowth: topography, land quality, and declining real farm product prices. However, the impact of urban growth and development on forests depends more strongly on changes in both the residential housing and labor markets. Using location quotient analysis of aggregate employment patterns, we examine the relationship between regional labor market changes and the extent of private forest cover from 1967 to 1998. We develop an econometric model of land-use shares in 40 southern Indiana counties based on the net benefits to agriculture, forestland, and urban uses. There is some evidence that changing agricultural profitability is leading to private forest regrowth. The ratio of urban to forest land uses is better explained by incorporating measures of residential land value and industrial concentration than simply considering population density alone.

These county level econometric models of land cover change are currently being extended to census tract and census block group levels. This work is focusing on the intra-county variance in land cover change, specifically reforestation and urban induced deforestation, throughout Southern Indiana.

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Last Updated: May 11, 2005
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