Fall Semester 2001
Colloquium Schedule, Fall 2001
Tuesday, December 4, 2001
Gerald Nelson,
Associate Professor and Alex De Pinto,
PhD Candidate,
Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics,
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign,
"New Techniques and New Challenges in Spatial Econometric Modeling of Land Use."
Abstract
In this colloquium we will report several shortcomings of the current
approaches to spatial econometric modeling of land use in developing
countries and introduce techniques we are experimenting with to address
them. Examples include detecting and dealing with spatial dependence in
limited dependent variable models, alternatives to multinomial logit,
incorporation of actual prices instead of distance measures, and modeling dynamics.
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Thursday, November 29, 2001
Camille Antinori,
Agricultural and Resource Economics,
University of California, Berkeley
"Economic and Ecological Effects of Institutions in
Mexico's Community Forestry Sector."
Abstract
Recent forestry laws in Mexico both liberalized the market for timber
production and decentralized control over natural resources to agrarian
communities that own a large percentage of Mexico's forestland in common.
As a result, ejidos and comunidades currently exhibit a variety of levels
of capital investment and interaction with timber processors, ranging
from "rentista" contracts to community-owned enterprises supplying
finished products. These changes have raised policy and theoretical
questions concerning the effects on economic development and ecological
sustainability in these communities. This paper examines three potential
impacts of timber production organization: diversification of community
activities into nontimber production, measures of ecological health of
the forest resource and forest management effectiveness. A theoretical
argument based on economies of scope between timber and nontimber production
is developed. The empirical results show that communities that control more
aspects of the wood products industry within their community governance
structure find expansion into nontimber activities easier. The form
of production organization is less important for measures of forest
ecological health and management effectiveness, while other measures
of community-level involvement are explanatory.
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Thursday, November 15, 2001
Daniel G. Brown,
Environmental Spatial Analysis Lab,
School of Natural Resources and Environment,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
"Linking Land Use Models to Land Cover
for Generating Landscape Scenarios."
Abstract
As part of a new NSF Biocomplexity project, called Project SLUCE
(Spatial Land Use Change and Ecological Effects), a group at the
University of Michigan is developing agent-based models of land
use change at the rural-urban fringe for the purposes of evaluating
ecological impacts. I will first describe the overall goals and
approach of this project, which is in its infancy. Then, I will
describe recent work on linking land use and land cover, which
will be an important aspect of Project SLUCE, through spatial
simulation. The simulation work is motivated by three basic ideas.
First, in order to evaluate the ecological consequences of land use
change scenarios, the physical changes to landscapes (i.e., land cover change)
that occur as a result of land use change need to be evaluated. Second,
because local and regional physical landscape characteristics affect
land use change decisions, landscape scenarios should incorporate the
possible feedbacks between land cover change and land use decisions.
Finally, improvements in ecological functioning on landscapes might
occur through interventions that affect land use decisions, but also
those that affect management decisions that have land cover implications.
My previous work has sought to extend models of land use change to
evaluate their impacts on land cover (e.g., forest or other habitats).
I will describe two projects that have used spatial simulation to
generate land cover patterns that are dependent on land use patterns,
but also on a separate pattern generation mechanism. The first
application involves converting land use maps and plans to land
cover, using a set of predefined translation rules, so that the
ecological consequences of the plans can be evaluated. The second
application extends Markov models by developing functional relationships
between land use and land use change and the forest cover transition
probabilities. The transition probabilities are used to simulate forest
cover changes as a consequence of land use change.
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Tuesday, November 13, 2001
Abdurheman Ame,
U.S. Agency for International Development - Ethiopia,
"The Crisis of Afar Pastoralism in Ethiopia."
Abstract
This study seeks to analyze existing pastoral land laws and policies in Ethiopia and its impact on the
pattern of resource use and adaptive strategies of the Afar pastoral community. Specifically it analyzes a)
how does reduced pastoral land structure the household herd size, herd composition and labor allocation
to different activities, and b) how has the pastoral land management practices; timing, frequency and
direction of herd mobility changed and impacted on range ecology. The research area is the Middle
Awash Valley where sugarcane and cotton plantations have been established by the Ethiopian
governments. It is envisaged that understanding the land tenure policy and their impact on the adaptive
strategies of the pastoralists is important because it helps in creating conducive policy environments for
the poor living in marginal environments.
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Thursday, November 1, 2001
Tun Myint,
Doctoral Student in Joint Law and Social Sciences and Public Affairs at
SPEA and the
and School of Law, CIPEC, Indiana University
"Complexities in Global Environmental Governance: Issues *Interests* Actors Network Model
for Transnational Environmental Governance in the
Mekong River Commission and the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine."
Abstract
This paper presents the study of institutional linkages among three
layers * local, national, and transnational layers * of two transnational
environmental regimes, the Mekong River Commission (MRC) in Southeast Asia
and the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR) in
Europe. Based on two preliminary case studies, the paper argues that neither
the sovereignty power of nation states alone nor the only cooperation among
non-state actors will advance the effective governance of transnational
environmental affairs. By analyzing various issues, interests, and actors
within the two river basin regimes, the paper attempts to develop
Issues-Interests-Actors Network (IAN) Model based on the developing theories
from the field of the public administration and the public management. With
IAN Model, the paper identifies linkages among three layers of transnational
environmental governance in MRC and ICPR. It is argued that the dynamic presence
of strong network of Issues, Interests, and Actors within three layers of
transnational regimes * local, national, and transnational institutions *
is a basic requirement for effective governance of transnational environmental
affairs. Issues are politically and socially crafted, interests are mainly economic
driven, and actors are value oriented in the process of issues-interests-actors
network. When there are dynamic presence (interactions) of these interests, issues,
and actors for a particular environmental problem, there is likelihood of achieving
the effective cooperation among actors for the environmental governance. The paper
concludes that if a transnational regime is capable of managing linkages between
different layers within it and facilitates stronger interaction among IANs in each
layer, the governance process of regime will contribute to the successful goal
attainments of the regime.
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Thursday, October 25, 2001
Krister Andersson, CIPEC Reserach Assistant, Indiana University and
Kenneth Richards, Assistant Professor, SPEA, Indiana University,
"Can We Fix the Leaky Sinks? Fundamental National Policy Challenges of Creating an International Carbon Trading Program."
Abstract
The Kyoto Protocol contains provisions for countries to include increments to carbon sinks as an offset against their emissions of carbon dioxide. The currently dominant offset approach focuses on individual carbon sequestration projects. In a recent Climate Policy article, Richards and Andersson (2001) examined this project-by-project (PBP) approach and concluded that it is unlikely that such a carbon trading system will succeed because the carbon sequestration contributions of isolated individual projects are difficult or impossible to estimate. However, instead of rejecting the inclusion of LUCF activities as a mitigation strategy altogether, Andersson and Richards (2001) have proposed a shift from the problematic PBP approach to a national inventory (NI) approach. They found that an international trading program in which nation states rather than local projects are awarded LUCF-based emission offset credits, would make the persistent difficulties of reliable and consistent measurement of carbon sinks more tractable. Measurement techniques utilized in carbon sink monitoring programs can be improved by turning away from idiosyncratic modeling and conjecture (the PBP approach) and rely more on national-scale monitoring systems of actual changes in carbon stock, using a combination of intensive field work and remote sensing technology. The paper discusses policy implications of empirical results from countries that have experimented with remote sensing technology-enhanced inventories of forestry carbon sinks, and presents the contemporary policy challenges for implementing such an inventory approach.
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Thursday, October 18, 2001
Andrew Foster,
Department of Economics and
Community Health,
Brown University
"Population, Income and Forest Growth: Management of Village Common Land in India."
Abstract
A newly-assembled data set that combines national household survey data, census data and satellite images of land use
in rural India over a 29-year period is used to obtain estimates of economic growth and population effects on forests,
to identify the mechanisms by which these factors affect land use, and to address whether forest areas are efficiently
managed where community land management is present. The evidence suggests that increases in the returns to
alternative uses of land induced by agricultural technical change, combined with the difficulty of monitoring forestresource
extraction, are the major contributing factors to deforestation.
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Thursday, October 11, 2001
Marco Janssen,
Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam
"Using artificial agents
to understand observed behaviour of real agents in their
management of common-pool resources."
Abstract
During the last 20 years many laboratory experiments and field studies have been performed to understand how people
manage common-pool resources. What has been clear from these analyses is that the traditional predictions of rational
choice theory do not hold. People are able to self-organize institutions. Although many suggestions are proposed of
factors that might explain observed self-organization of institutions, we are lacking formal models alternative to
rational choice theory. One of the possible alternative approaches is to make use of multi-agent models. In this talk I
will present results of using agent-based models to explain puzzling outcomes of laboratory experiments reported in
Ostrom et al. (1994). Furthermore, I will report on an explorative study to identify the critical factors that foster self-governance
of common-pool resources by the use of a multi-agent model.
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Thursday, October 4, 2001
Krister Andersson,
CIPEC Reserach Assistant, Indiana University
"Jungle Politics: Can Decentralization Save Bolivia's Forest?"
Abstract
Decentralization of political authority to municipal
governments has become a very common policy strategy
for addressing governance problems associated with
environmental degradation in developing countries. Many
international policy documents point to the advantages of
a decentralized government structure and the potentially
positive role of municipal governments in addressing environmental
problems. Yet, the scientific understanding of the environmental
impacts of decentralization reform remains quite limited. Is
decentralization meeting the expectation of a satisfactory policy
response to environmental problems in the developing world? The study
examines this question in Bolivia's forestry sector, which during the
last five years has undergone an unparalleled decentralization process.
Based on recent empirical research in 54 municipal governments in the
Bolivian Lowlands, the study discusses the conditions for successful
local government performance in the forestry sector. The empirical
analysis links the changing local political context to municipal
government performance, which in turn is used to explain observed
changes in forest condition in the post-reform era.
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Colloquium Schedule, Fall 2001
October 4, 2001 - Krister Andersson,
CIPEC Reserach Assistant, Indiana University
"Jungle Politics: Can Decentralization Save Bolivia's Forest?"
October 11, 2001 - Marco Janssen,
Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam
"Using artificial agents
to understand observed behaviour of real agents in their
management of common-pool resources."
October 18, 2001 - Andrew Foster,
Department of Economics and Community Health
, Brown University
"Population, Income and Forest Growth: Management of
Village Common Land in India."
October 25, 2001 -
Krister Andersson, CIPEC Reserach Assistant, Indiana University and
Kenneth Richards, Assistant Professor, SPEA, Indiana University,
"Can We Fix the Leaky Sinks? Fundamental National Policy Challenges of Creating an International Carbon Trading Program."
November 1, 2001 - Tun Myint,
Doctoral Student in Joint Law and Social Sciences and Public Affairs at SPEA and Law,
CIPEC, Indiana University,
"Complexities in Global Environmental Governance:
Issues *Interests* Actors Network Model
for Transnational Environmental Governance in the
Mekong River Commission and the International Commission
for the Protection of the Rhine."
November 13, 2001 - Abdurahman Ame, U.S. Agency for International Development, Ethiopia.
"The Crisis of Afar Pastoralism in Ethiopia."
November 15, 2001 - Dan Brown, School of Natural Resources & Environment, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor.
"Linking Land Use Models to Land Cover for Generating Landscape Scenarios"
November 29, 2001 - Camille Antinori, Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California,
Berkeley. "Shifting Forestry Management at the Community Level: Evidence from Oaxaca, Mexico."
December 4, 2001 - Gerald Nelson , Associate Professor and Alex De Pinto,
PhD Candidate,
Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics,
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign,
"New Techniques and New Challenges in Spatial Econometric Modeling of Land Use."
If you have any questions concerning this series, please contact
Teena Freeman, CIPEC Travel Coordinator and PIRT Administrative
Coordinator, at CIPEC at (812) 855-5631 or through email at tgfreema@indiana.edu.
If you have a disability or need assistance, arrangements can be made
to accommodate most needs. Please call (812) 855-5631.
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Last Updated: May 11, 2005
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